TwentyFour Advent Calendar 2023

Read 4 min
Day 1 - open door
 

1

Goldman Sachs revises its projection for European growth in 2023 from -0.1% to 0.6% on January 10, joining a chorus of Wall Street analysts abandoning bearish calls on the region after a mild winter helps to reduce energy prices.

Day 2 - open door
 

2

European borrowers print a record €280bn of new bonds in January as they look to capitalise on lower borrowing costs driven by the region’s improved economic outlook and the general market rally.

Day 3 - open door
 

3

US Treasury yields jump as US non-farm payrolls data on February 3 shows the US economy added 517k jobs in January, smashing the 190k estimate and boosting the case for more hawkish policy from the Fed.

Day 4 - open door
 

4

The market’s projection for where the Fed Funds rate will be come January 2024 hits a new high of 4.92% in mid-February, after US CPI data shows disinflation slowing and prompts some investors to price in more rate hikes from the Fed.

Day 5 - open door
 

5

SVB becomes the second-largest bank failure in US history following the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual. The ailing lender was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in March and, according to regulators, had assets of $209bn. 

Day 6 - open door
 

6

Holders of €16.5bn of Credit Suisse’s additional tier one (AT1) bonds have their holdings wiped out in March as part of the surprise and seismic takeover of the bank by UBS. UBS successfully raised $3.5bn of AT1 bonds in November, which was labelled a ‘cathartic’ moment for the sector.

Day 7 - Open door
 

7

US inflation falls to its lowest level in nearly two years, with the consumer price index rising by 5% year on year, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released in April. US President Joe Biden says the report showed “continued progress” in the battle against high prices.

8 - Day 8 advent calander
 

8

House prices in the EU experienced their first quarterly fall since 2015. According to data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, published in April, house prices dropped 1.5%, with the biggest falls coming in Denmark and Germany.

Day 9 - closed door
 

9

Federal Reserve officials deliver their 10th consecutive rate rise, upping the federal funds rate to a target range of 5-5.25% in May, the highest since mid-2007. Fed chair Jerome Powell says “a decision on a pause was not made today”.

day 10 - open door
 

10

Fears about the German economy resurface as factory output falls 3.4%, according to figures published in May. The drop prompts economists to warn that Europe’s largest economy is likely to slide into a recession.

Day 11 - open door
 

11

The S&P 500 jumps 6.5% in June, largely due to the performance of the technology sector as excitement around harnessing the benefits of artificial intelligence continues to capture the imagination of investors.

Door 12 - Open door
 

12

Data from July shows gross domestic product in China grew 0.8 per cent in the second quarter, compared to the previous three months. The growth was more than expected but well down on the 2.2 per cent expansion in the first quarter.

Day 13 - open door
 

13

The US yield curve — which measures the difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields — reaches a three-month low of 97 basis points in June. It comes after the Federal Reserve signals its willingness to raise interest rates another two notches before the end of the year.

Day 14 (Door Open)
 

14

Thames Water is fined £3.3m in July after dumping millions of litres of undiluted sewage into two rivers, killing more than 1,400 fish. The move leaves investors reconsidering their view of the water company’s four green bonds.

Door 15
 

15

The Bank of England tells the market in August that it no longer expects a recession but warns that the economy will remain near stagnation for the next two years. It comes after gross domestic product was 0.2 per cent higher in the second quarter.

Day 16 187k open door
 

16

US jobs growth slowed more than forecast in August, with the economy adding 187,000 new non-farm jobs, compared with estimates of 200,000.

Day 17 - door open
 

17

German inflation falls to its lowest level for two years, raising hopes that the European Central Bank has come to the end of its rate-hiking cycle. Consumer prices in Germany fell from 6.4 per cent in August to 4.3 per cent in September.

Day 18 open door
 

18

The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at a 5.25-5.50% target range in September, following 10 consecutive rate rises. The Fed suggests it expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously expected for 2024.

Day 19 door open
 

19

The share of the working-age population in employment in the OECD’s 38 member countries jumped above 70 per cent for the first time, according to figures published in October. The OECD has been collecting employment data since 2005.

Day 20 open door
 

20

The European Central Bank follows the Fed and in October pauses its rate hikes, leaving the headline rate at 4%. The decision was expected after inflation within the trading bloc falls significantly.

Day 21 open door
 

21

US inflation falls more than expected to 3.2 per cent, according to figures published in November. It is the first decline in four months, causing treasury yields to fall and US stocks to jump. Inflation dropped from 3.7% in the previous month.

Day 22 door open
 

22

UK house prices suffer their first annual decline in more than a decade, according to official data published in November. The average price for a property decreased by 0.1 per cent, figures from the Office for National Statistics show. It is the first year-on-year drop since April 2012.

Day 23 Door open
 

23

Moody’s, the rating agency, said on December 5 that it expects GDP growth in China to slow to 3.5% by 2030 as a result of “weaker demographics”, and subsequently downgraded its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds from stable to negative.

Day 24 door open
 

24

Inflation in the world’s richest economies fell to its lowest rate in two years, according to data published on December 5. The annual rate of consumer price growth among the OECD nations dropped to 5.6%.