Fixed Income

After a constructive 2025 for fixed income markets, marked by falling interest rates and steady global growth, investors are looking ahead to what’s in store for 2026.

Historically, one of the key sources of stability in European ABS has been ratings. The market has long seen upgrades consistently outnumber downgrades, even during periods of stress, most recently during Covid-19.

On Monday, risk markets opened on the front foot after largely shrugging off the weekend’s geopolitical news. Stock markets rallied, led by large-cap energy companies that stand to benefit from the "opening" of Venezuelan oil markets, while credit spreads were tighter across the board, continuing the positive trend seen at the end of last year.

The new year has begun with a jolt for market participants after the US carried out a military operation in Caracas over the weekend, capturing Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

European ABS investors saw just the second solar loan-backed deal price recently, a German offering titled Golden Ray 2. The transaction marks a further incremental development towards sustainable financing in the European securitisation market. It also comes at a time when the much larger and established US solar market has encountered headwinds.

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.

As we approach the end of 2025, we have been taking stock of the key themes of the year and any lessons we can take from them. It has been a strong year for European high yield (HY) credit, with solid performance for the index as a whole and average yields compressed by around 40bp over the course of the year.

Nothing beats an 11-hour flight back to London for evaluating the outlook for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs), having attended the Opal CLO conference in California.

As we approach the end of a year that has seen risk assets shrug off US tariffs and mounting concerns over AI-driven tech valuations, TwentyFour Asset Management’s portfolio management team selects the seven key questions that they believe will define 2026 for fixed income investors.

The terms private credit and life insurance have appeared together in multiple negative headlines in recent weeks, and to casual observers the link between the two may not be immediately obvious.

The wait is over. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her much anticipated November Budget on Wednesday, ending weeks of rumours and leaks that had created a general feeling that all measures were on the table – now investors, businesses and taxpayers alike can fill in the empty cells on their spreadsheets and calculate what’s left.

The private credit exposure of life insurance firms, particularly those with private equity (PE) owners, has been drawing the market’s attention in recent weeks.