The TwentyFour Blog
Markets can’t rely on midterms to change course of Iran war
Prediction markets suggest the Democrats are capable of gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives at the US midterm elections on November 3, with Polymarket putting the chance of a “sweep” at 64% as of Friday morning.
The ECB pushes back on bank “deregulation”
The topic of banking “deregulation” has come back to the fore this year, mainly fuelled by initiatives from the US authorities.
Term premium has risen, and may not have peaked
The importance of “term premium” in discussions about yield curves has been on the rise this year.
Warsh delivers a boost to Fed's credibility
The latest FOMC meeting delivered more than a rate hike. Chair Warsh's clear hawkish message that inflation has been too high for too long helped restore confidence in the Fed's commitment to tackling inflation, with important implications for bond markets and rate expectations.
Reinsurance: Pressure on premiums and AI opportunities
The Rendez-Vous de Septembre (RVS) reinsurance conference was held last week in Monte Carlo. This annual event began in 1957 and is the largest gathering in the reinsurance sector, bringing together participants across the insurance and reinsurance market for bilateral discussions ahead of annual renewals (with a major share of contracts renewing on January 1).
Are Bunds poised to outperform US Treasuries?
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a well telegraphed 25bp rate hike and updated its projections for growth and inflation.
Waller vs Warsh: Finding the Fed’s strike zone
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to define a clear “strike zone” for forward guidance has put him increasingly at odds with Governor Christopher Waller.
How hyperscaler issuance is reshaping the Treasury curve
Hyperscaler bond issuance has surged in 2026, with volumes already far exceeding previous years. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX have issued over $180bn of USD-denominated bonds so far this year.
Warsh finally gives markets much needed clarity
Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech went a long way, in our view, towards restoring some much-needed credibility to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) reaction function and its commitment to the dual mandate.
Record supply meets disciplined buyers
US investment grade (IG) borrowers printed close to $150bn in August, surpassing the $136bn record set in August 2020 and making this the third consecutive month to set an all-time high after June and July.
US life insurers feel private credit scrutiny
A series of recent developments has put US life insurers with significant private-credit linkages under greater regulatory and investor scrutiny. While we believe this could create pressure for some US names, we see limited evidence that the concerns are spilling over into European life insurers.
US Treasury intervention unlikely to provide lasting support
The US Treasury Department surprised markets yesterday afternoon by announcing an increase in its buyback operations, which will “at least double” to $4bn, from 9 September to 4 November.