In TwentyFour's ABS update on Monday 10th May 2021, Aza Teeuwen provided an update on investment themes and positioning in the ABS market.

Markets can often be tricky for investors in May as bond issuers take advantage of a window of opportunity following the Q1 earnings season and ahead of the typical summer lull. This often results in heavy supply in late April and early May, hence the old trader adage of “sell in May and go away”.

As long as coal usage is not illegal, a private buyer of any origin will be able to purchase these assets cheaper and run them for as long as possible with no regard for ESG matters.

There has been a lot of focus on the performance of the high yield markets since the start of the year, particularly in Q1 when many rates markets were selling off aggressively.

Crucially while the Fed may wait to see the evidence, markets won’t, and we therefore expect a ‘second wave’ of Treasury selling to happen well before then.

In TwentyFour's quarterly update, Mark Holman discussed his outlook for the bellwether US Treasury curve, and explained how he thinks investors can still look to pick up yield while avoiding traditionally more rate-sensitive markets.

Having been at the heart of the GFC and then contributing to the Eurozone sovereign crisis, we have long argued the European banking sector would have to prove its newfound resilience to investors by successfully navigating a challenging period.

Tobacco company bond spreads were volatile last week on news that the Biden administration is exploring a ban on menthol cigarettes and may pursue a policy to reduce nicotine levels in all cigarettes to non-addictive or minimally addictive levels. Rumours about an increased tobacco tax also surfaced, further shaking up the industry.

Mark Holman explains why the likes of Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio are warning investors away from fixed income, and points out where he thinks they’re wrong.

Had this happened a month ago, we suspect the move would be materially more pronounced, and the muted reaction indicates to us that markets are now quite comfortable with the current levels of expected growth, forecast inflation, and yields.