Macroeconomics

Yesterday unveiled the latest Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Europe, bringing a mix of economic news. Dive into the results with Felipe Villarroel as he looks at the numbers and what they mean for central banks in the battle against inflation.

A member of our Multi-Sector Bond team reflects on a tricky quarter for markets, highlighting the behaviour of the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England and then discusses the ways in which the MSB team have responded to these Q3 events.

Elena Rinaldi gives an update on the market, highlighting the peak in rates in the quarter, the performance of ABS for the quarter, and delving deeper into the primary issuance activity over the summer months.

In our Investment Grade quarterly update, Gordon Shannon, reflects on government bond yields, which accelerated sharply at the end of Q3, as well as commenting on the behaviour of the European Central Banks over the quarter and the soft-landing 'fairytale' markets had hoped for.

After what can only be described as a relatively dire year for fixed income in 2022, during which spiralling inflation led to one of the most aggressive rate hiking cycles on record, we believe the market for bonds is now looking much healthier.

Since the last Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on September 20, rates markets have sold off very aggressively. And, despite rates being left on hold, the hawkish message, which included the possibility of another hike this year and less cuts next year than previously forecast, was one of the key contributing factors behind the ~55bps increase in the 10-year treasury in the 10 days following that meeting.

The labour market has been one of the major headaches the Bank of England has had to deal with in their battle against inflation. Yesterday the ONS released their monthly labour market update and although some of those headaches’ causes are not abating, there are others that are actually showing signs of progress.

Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market.

Pauline Quirin asks the question "How are UK mortgages weathering the storm?", exploring pre and post Global Financial Crisis mortgages and how the surge in rates has impacted the performance of UK RMBS.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

Jack Daley takes a look into the economic events that have influenced the investment grade markets in Q2. He then goes on to explain why he believes investment grade fixed income offers the most attractive risk-adjusted returns currently available.

Douglas Charleston believes European ABS has once again provided a rare bright spot for fixed income. He explains how, from Q1 to Q2, focuses have shifted, and delves into different macro-economic variables affecting the ABS market.