Europe

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

Following the end of quantitative easing in 2023, the European ABS market has gone from strength to strength and 2025 is set to overtake the post-2008 new issuance record set in 2024.

As active managers we are naturally looking for bonds that we believe are mispriced, therefore offering attractive risk-adjusted carry or, sometimes, a capital gain if market pricing falls into line with our view. Equally important is to avoid sectors facing structural or protracted cyclical downturns where we don’t think valuations reflect the fundamentals.

A trio of rating upgrades in European financials late last week has highlighted the strength of fundamentals in the sector. With the proportion of the subordinated financials that is rated investment grade continuing to grow, the wider pool of investors targeting these bonds could help to dampen volatility in the asset class.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is reportedly accelerating its work on a digital version of the euro (the dEuro), having seen the US pass the Genius Act in July which paved the way for broader adoption of so-called stablecoins.

We have long harked on about the strength of the technical in credit, with solid fundamentals, resilient inflows and defensive positioning continuing to provide a tailwind for the market.

The $5.2tr asset-backed finance (ABF) market represents a growing opportunity to gain exposure to high quality loan pools and the returns they can generate.

On Thursday, markets received preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for August. As a reminder, PMIs are timely indicators of trends in manufacturing and services, with a number above 50 signalling an expansion and below 50 a contraction.

Restricted Tier 1 (RT1) investors have been woken from an otherwise sleepy summer after Allianz Group, one of the largest insurers and asset managers globally, brought a $1.25bn deal to the market on Tuesday.

Urbaser, a Spanish waste management specialist, came to the market last week with a controversial new deal. The company launched a €1bn payment-in-kind (PIK) toggle note to fund a dividend to its owner Platinum Equity, just six weeks after it issued a new €2.3bn debt package to refinance its existing debt and fund a further €1bn of dividends.