Europe

Persistent macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and AI-driven disruption have all shaped the start of 2026. It has also marked the return of the leveraged buyout (LBO).

European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.

Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.

Since their introduction in 2013, AT1 bonds have acted as a valuable kicker for many fixed income funds, having consistently delivered excess return over more mainstream credit markets such as high yield bonds over the medium term.

Last week, European regulators took another step in their long journey towards a single European banking regime, otherwise known as “banking union”.

Corporate hybrid issuance is on track for a record year in both Europe and the US, driven by expanding supply well beyond the traditional utilities, energy, and telecoms issuers.

Collateralised Loan Obligation (CLO) markets have repriced meaningfully over the past few weeks, with a sell-off in software-related loans leading to even more spread “tiering” as investors differentiate between managers with lower exposure to stressed sectors and those carrying more tail risk.

With most European banks having now reported their full-year 2025 results, we see the sector carrying solid momentum into 2026.

Issuers in corporate credit have started this year on the front foot, capitalising on the current supportive market conditions and front loading their funding plans in anticipation of higher funding needs from the hyperscalers in the US, among other factors.

2026 is already shaping up to be another volatile year for geopolitics, economies and markets. But one pocket stands out as a key beneficiary of the present backdrop.

One of the many unusual developments in financial markets last year was the decoupling between German Bunds and other safe haven G7 government bonds, most notably US Treasuries. Since the inception of the euro, it’s been quite a rare event that Bunds and Treasuries move in opposite directions for sustained periods of time.

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.