The TwentyFour Blog

Oracle returned to the bond market yesterday, just five months after its $18 billion September jumbo deal, finally removing the cloud of uncertainty around supply that has hung over the credit.

Foreign exchange markets have taken centre stage again in recent weeks. President Trump’s apparent indifference to the relatively steep dollar depreciation trend of late has raised a few eyebrows and added fuel to the dollar fire.

One of the many unusual developments in financial markets last year was the decoupling between German Bunds and other safe haven G7 government bonds, most notably US Treasuries. Since the inception of the euro, it’s been quite a rare event that Bunds and Treasuries move in opposite directions for sustained periods of time.

2026 has started with a wave of hybrid issuance, with names like Enel and Telefonica leading the charge in a busy primary market. On 12 January, with markets firmly open despite geopolitical headlines, Telefonica proactively managed its outstanding hybrid maturities by announcing a tender offer for its three shortest outstanding hybrids, alongside the issuance of two new euro-denominated green hybrid bonds.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

This week we have seen the continuation of a remarkably strong technical in the credit markets. At the time when S&P 500 index was selling off by nearly 2% on the day, while government bonds were also in the red, spreads in Additional Tier 1s (AT1s), which always represent a higher beta product in the corporate bond universe, were barely changed.

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.

The new year has begun with a jolt for market participants after the US carried out a military operation in Caracas over the weekend, capturing Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

As we approach the end of a year that has seen risk assets shrug off US tariffs and mounting concerns over AI-driven tech valuations, TwentyFour Asset Management’s portfolio management team selects the seven key questions that they believe will define 2026 for fixed income investors.

For much of the past year, the AI story in markets has been one of unrestrained optimism. Firms have been racing to spend on chips, infrastructure, and data centres, and equity valuations have generally rewarded those with the boldest capital expenditure plans.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.