The TwentyFour Blog

There is an emerging sense of unease in the markets around the scale and productivity of corporate investments in AI. As fixed income investors, not equity or tech managers, we will not aim to assess the longevity or possible applications of these nascent technologies, and nor should we opine on when or by how much equity markets might go up or down.

Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve (Fed) colleagues decided to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4% at last week’s policy meeting, marking 150bp of cuts since the cycle began in September 2024.

Oil prices have been gathering headlines in the last few weeks. After falling below the $60 per barrel mark, the West Texas Intermediate price (WTI) bounced back strongly as a result of fresh sanctions announced against the two Russian giants, Lukoil and Rosneft.

Amidst an economic data blackout caused by the US government shutdown, markets received a bit of positive news on Friday with the release of the US CPI report which showed consumer prices in September increased at a slower pace than expected.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

The labour market in the UK continues to cool off along the lines of what the Bank of England (BoE) expects. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released its monthly labour market data report, highlighting a rise in the unemployment rate and a reduction in some wage inflation measures.

The sharp sell-off in loans tied to First Brands Group, a US auto-parts supplier, has rippled through credit markets in recent weeks — but for investors' outstanding senior secured loans held in Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs), the damage appears modest and distinct from reported off balance sheet financings.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

Oracle priced an $18bn six-tranche (5yr/7yr/10yr/20yr/30yr/40yr) bond deal which was increased from an initial $15bn on the back of exceptionally strong demand. It is the latest sign that the AI investment boom, long the focus of equity markets, is now spilling into credit.

Following the end of quantitative easing in 2023, the European ABS market has gone from strength to strength and 2025 is set to overtake the post-2008 new issuance record set in 2024.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) on Wednesday, exactly as markets had anticipated, marking its first rate reduction since December 2024.