US

As we enter the third year of the pandemic, most market participants are asking themselves (once again) if this will be the year when supply chain issues finally abate.

Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.

Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, in which he said the Fed would discuss a faster taper of its asset purchases at December’s FOMC meeting, has led to intense speculation that we could see a move this week.

The labour market in the US shows little sign of weakening, despite the huge number of jobs already created this year.

How do investors deal with inflation? Do central banks know what they’re doing? And does anyone know where Treasuries are heading? CEO Mark Holman tackles the bond market’s biggest questions as he looks ahead to 2022.

What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.

With rising government bond yield curves one of the biggest concerns for fixed income fund managers going into 2022, Eoin Walsh points to interest rate swaps as one option for reducing the rates risk of a portfolio without impacting its credit exposure.

This week the team at TwentyFour have been busy compiling our 2022 fixed income outlook, which will be published next week. There is no doubt we are confronted with a challenging set of circumstances, which will provide investors – not just in fixed income – with headwinds in the year ahead, and in particular we think during the first half.

Before the pandemic struck in February 2020, there were 159 million employed Americans; by the end of April that year, 26 million jobs disappeared. Since then, politicians and central bankers have focused on recovering all jobs lost to the pandemic fallout and returning to pre-COVID levels.

With all eyes on November 3 and the Fed’s next move, Paul Kim looks at supply chain disruption in the US and how its cost pressures have shifted the narrative on ‘transitory’ inflation.

Fixed income markets have experienced a reasonable correction over recent weeks and, for higher-yielding indices at least, their first negative period so far this year.

Given the prospect of central bank tapering and ultimately interest rate rises are looming ever larger, it is no surprise dealmakers are trying to take advantage of attractive financing terms while they still exist.