Will high yields stay high?
For all of these observations, there is one common observation – yields did not stay at these high levels for very long.
Insights Topic
US
Has inflation peaked? Ask the housing market.
Given inflation has been running hot for more than a year now, it was no surprise to see the recent dip in US data greeted with a muted sigh of relief across the markets.
Food for thought from the Fed
The Federal Reserve minutes for meetings held on the 3-4th May were released last night, and for markets that have been beaten up by rates volatility, they provided some interesting takeaways.
Just how healthy is the consumer?
Consumers are being hit from seemingly all angles at the moment. Higher interest rates are coming, higher inflation is already hitting their pockets hard and economic growth is expected to slow.
Even in recession, defaults will be lower than previous cycles
The vast majority of the high yield universe used the attractive funding conditions last year to term out their maturity profiles. In fact, 2022 maturities in both US and European high yield equate to just 1% of their respective indices.
How to prep your bond portfolio for recession
At the beginning of this year you would have struggled to find a single investment bank or asset manager (ourselves included) that thought owning 10-year US Treasuries (USTs) was a good idea.
The solace provided by a robust earnings season
Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.
Multi-Sector Bond Quarterly Update – April 2022
TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Eoin Walsh, discusses market conditions in Q1 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.
Is a soft landing possible?
As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.
The evidence doesn’t point to recession
Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.
Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power
Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.