Europe

Having fallen behind other markets in the post-COVID rally due to a lack of direct central bank support, we believe European ABS is set to outperform other parts of fixed income in the coming months as supply wanes and investors look to pick up on what we think could be a compelling relative value opportunity.

Jack Daley discusses the record bond issuance that was seen in Q2 2020 across gross and net levels in global fixed income markets, particularly in Europe and the US.

There are a number of countries in Europe where the banking sector remains very fragmented, and while a lot of work has been done in Spain with the mergers of multiple ‘cajas’ in the last few years, there is still scope for further consolidation.

The European high yield market has shown remarkable resilience in the face of what will likely go down as one of the sharpest and most severe recessions in history. The benchmark iTraxx Xover index (a widely used proxy for Euro HY credit risk) has tightened from an intraday high of 730bp in March to 342bp earlier this week, a retracement of almost 75% from the January lows of approximately 200bp.

Markets opened today to the news that German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, had reached an agreement to support the launch of a €500bn support package to aid the European Union’s recovery from the coronavirus outbreak, which has devastated large parts of the continent.

One of the big support mechanisms for the UK economy during this pandemic has been the availability of grants and corporate loans via the banking system, aided by unlimited liquidity from the central bank.

Partner and Portfolio Manager Ben Hayward provides an update on the European ABS market.

We noted with interest two headlines yesterday: Italy to suspend mortgage payments amid outbreak and RBS and NatWest offer mortgage breaks for customers affected by coronavirus

Our take on all of this is that the central bank has acted in a very targeted and timely way, adding large volumes of liquidity at even lower rates, along with significant capital to the banking system.

Monday was one of those days investment professionals will remember all their lives, and compare with similar standout days from the past.

This deal may well perform in the short-term, and we sincerely hope Alpha’s plan works, but we also recognise there is a high degree of execution risk and the domestic economy still has considerable headwinds.

Chris Bowie discusses “The Opportunities in Sterling Credit” as he goes into some of the myths and opportunities within the sterling credit markets and trends we expect for the year ahead.