Europe

At TwentyFour our Italian ABS holdings are fairly moderate, and in general our peripheral ABS exposure has been steadily decreasing for some time. This has nothing to do with credit quality, but everything to do with relative value.

It may come as a surprise to some that the country currently experiencing the fastest pace of monetary tightening across developed nations is in Europe, where the main refinancing rate is well and truly anchored at -0.40%.

This morning we arrived to the news that the Italian government was preparing a budget that had a deficit of 2.4%.

Those of you who have seen or heard one of our presentations will be aware of the significant impact that the FX-basis currently has on our relative value bond selection.

This is a crucial week for Turkey’s economy and the Central Bank of Turkey’s credibility.

Since that first encounter the market has remained a core financing option for banks’ consumer and corporate lending books, but there has always been a degree of innovation around the fringes.

Last Friday we were surprised that a comment from a G7 finance minister, which should have been taken highly positively, was somewhat skipped over by the markets.

Our attention this morning was grabbed by a headline from Italy’s La Stampa, which reported that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is preparing a 2019 budget that will result in a 1.5% deficit/GDP ratio for the indebted EU nation.

Last year, with credit spreads tightening close to historic levels, it seemed appropriate to us to take a more prudent stance and move to a more balanced portfolio.

Following on from the release of solid Q2 numbers, and no longer in a closed-period, Barclays were quickly out of the blocks and announced the issue of a new AT1 this morning; a $2bn transaction with initial price talk of 8%.

Now that the summer lull has finally kicked in, it seems an ideal time to review the ABS market so far this year and try to make a prediction for the remainder of 2018.

It’s been nearly five months since the Italian general elections, with the result and the process of forming a coalition government eventually leading to the steepest selloff in BTPs we’ve seen for a long time, and the spread to bunds touching levels not seen since 2013.