US Yield Curve Set To Continue Underperforming
In summary things are going quite well, and in this scenario a rise in government bond yields does not necessarily bring about a tightening of financial conditions.
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TwentyFour Blog
Comprehending The Treasury Move
A couple of weeks ago we wrote about Treasuries breaking new ground and the potential for them to go higher as higher inflation expectations gathered pace.
The UK Savings Ratio: How Far Can It Go?
The Bank of England have just added to the debate about how much of the recent surge in savings will be deployed in the form of consumption as we return to ‘normality’.
US Treasuries Hit By Inflation Expectations
Our end of year view on the 10 year is 1.50, but we could get there a lot quicker - now is not the time to be brave on Treasuries.
GBP High Yield Closing the Gap?
The last few weeks has seen healthy issuance in the high yield space, including multiple billion pound deals, the most recent of which, Asda, priced on Wednesday. This was an interesting deal for a few reasons, not least because it is the largest sterling high yield deal of all time
ESG: Looking Under the Label
This deal, backed by a £472m pool of owner-occupied mortgages partially securitised in a previous transaction, drew over £1.2bn of orders and was printed 10-30bp tighter than initial price guidance depending on the tranche, reaching pre-COVID tights.
ESG Covenants in High Yield
Ultimately, the fact that the Klockner deal is not marketed as a green loan but still includes ESG-related covenants is proof that ESG needs to be integrated into an investor’s credit work as a matter of course, something we have been arguing for years.
Time to Test The Water in CCCs?
We think it is indeed time to begin the search for recovery stories and deleveraging credits in sectors where the execution strategy is likely to succeed.
The Great CLO Refinancing is Well Underway
I think it’s likely we’ll see new cycle tights for the European CLO sector this year, so in addition to healthy income we believe there is plenty of room for capital appreciation as prices are being pushed higher in the secondary market.
Default Peaks May Already Be Behind Us
We think this current pause in the global rally is healthy and gives investors a rare moment to reassess, but from a fixed income credit point of view we would not expect too much of a dip.
Where Did all the Banks Go?
European ABS primary markets have started 2021 at the solid pace that most market participants expected. The market saw a patchy Q4 in which activity petered out early, not helped by the dominant UK market suffering some hesitation whilst tightrope Brexit deal talks went to the wire, but also as a result of a rather more simple fatigue that appeared to have set in.
Comprehending The Brexit Premium
In our view the rationale for the premium is certainly weakening and, of course, we can no longer call it a ‘Brexit’ premium.