Is a soft landing possible?
As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.
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TwentyFour Blog
Deutsche Bank lures CoCo investors
The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.
The evidence doesn’t point to recession
Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.
Is there value in floating rate bonds?
Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.
Powell confirms Fed pivot is complete
Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.
Is there enough of an ESG premium in EM?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered fresh debate about ESG considerations in fixed income, particularly when it comes to emerging markets assets.
BoE sounds caution on the real economy
The hawkishness of the Fed on Wednesday paved the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.
Wave of inflation means companies will sink or swim on pricing power
Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.
FOMC: Central bankers face conundrum on inflation and growth
The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Investors face conundrum on government bond allocations
We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.
Rising HY defaults more than priced in
Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.
Investors are overreacting to banks’ Russia exposure
European bank equity has been among the hardest hit sectors since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as fears of losses and a flight to quality have prompted investors to change positioning.