UK

Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

Elena Rinaldi lays out analysis from the team's recreation of the BoE's bank stress test from a mortgage default and loss point of view, applying it to a benchmark UK RMBS BBB-rated bond. Ultimately finding that this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE.

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

There has been a noticeable pick up in the European ABS new issuance market this year, with demand far outstripping supply. John Lawler looks at what makes a UK RMBS deal ‘Prime’, and why not all deals are the same.

Following higher than expected inflation data in the UK, Gordon Shannon looks at the knock on effects within the Gilt market and the increased pressure on the Bank of England.

Last week saw three UK Prime RMBS deals served up to ABS investors, the most liquid part of the European ABS market. In our latest blog we hear from Douglas Charleston who analyses these recent deals and what it means for this market segment.

Yesterday’s CPI Report from the Fed gave reasons for optimism. Read Felipe Villarroel’s analysis of the report and what it could mean for the Fed’s uncomfortably long battle against inflation.

In the last few weeks the high yield primary market has seen a resumption of issuance which Portfolio Manager George Curtis believes points to a relatively buoyant market.

Douglas Charleston looks at the wider implications of recent bank sector volatility and the opportunities it presents for credit investors.