Deals come thick and fast in European ABS after summer recess
The European ABS market is making a strong comeback post-summer, witnessing two of the busiest weeks in over a decade, driven by robust demand.
Insights Topic
UK
Fed rates held: Goldilocks is in the building
Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.
Growing signs that the UK labour market is weakening
The labour market has been one of the major headaches the Bank of England has had to deal with in their battle against inflation. Yesterday the ONS released their monthly labour market update and although some of those headaches’ causes are not abating, there are others that are actually showing signs of progress.
How UK mortgages are weathering the storm?
Pauline Quirin asks the question "How are UK mortgages weathering the storm?", exploring pre and post Global Financial Crisis mortgages and how the surge in rates has impacted the performance of UK RMBS.
Poor PMI data weigh on soft landing narrative
Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.
Diverging dynamics in savings ratios
As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.
Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up
Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.
BoE stress test shows resilience of the UK RMBS market
Elena Rinaldi lays out analysis from the team's recreation of the BoE's bank stress test from a mortgage default and loss point of view, applying it to a benchmark UK RMBS BBB-rated bond. Ultimately finding that this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE.
PMIs below expectations in Europe and the UK
Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.
Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative
What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.
Blurred Lines
There has been a noticeable pick up in the European ABS new issuance market this year, with demand far outstripping supply. John Lawler looks at what makes a UK RMBS deal ‘Prime’, and why not all deals are the same.
Stubborn inflation, cheaper gilts
Following higher than expected inflation data in the UK, Gordon Shannon looks at the knock on effects within the Gilt market and the increased pressure on the Bank of England.