Investment Grade

US banks remain bullish about the health of the consumer, but credit spreads are still pricing in not only a recession, but a fairly severe one. Are the banks wrong? Or have credit markets just backed up too far on negative fund flows?

With corporate bond spreads having risen to not far short of crisis levels, Johnathan Owen argues the 4%-plus yields on offer in short dated investment grade are an attractive entry point for investors that might not be around for long.

With Heimstaden showing its commitment to corporate hybrids with a €600m tender offer, Pierre Beniguel looks at the complex decision issuers have to make and says more could follow suit with bonds trading at steep discounts.

After H1 2022 broke market records for all the wrong reasons, Gary Kirk says fixed income outflows could reverse quickly if investors see evidence that central banks are turning the tide on inflation.

At this stage in the economic cycle investors may need to think about ways to protect their portfolios while providing strong relative value. Johnathan Owen explains why short dated investment grade can offer exactly that in his latest blog.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

With investors having endured a painful period of rising yields in 2022, Mark Holman looks at whether rates weakness or credit spread widening has been most to blame.

The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.

Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.  

Last week investors were faced with a double whammy of monetary tightening from the Bank of England (BoE), which on Thursday hiked interest rates by 25bp and announced the gradual unwind of its £20bn corporate bond portfolio.