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    Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
    Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
    Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.

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Government Bonds

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
20 May 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets

Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
Read more
Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
3 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.
Read more
Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?
1 Apr 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Will Bunds bounce back against US Treasuries?

If we look at the main drivers of returns in Q1 2025, the first one that comes to mind is tariffs. But while this is true for equities and credit spreads, in the context of global fixed income the main driver of total returns in Q1 was the Bund sell-off triggered by a momentous shift in German fiscal policy.
Read more
  Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads
27 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Gilts in precarious spot with UK at economic crossroads

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Read more
US growth fears highlight strength of European yields
14 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

US growth fears highlight strength of European yields

Volatility in Bunds seems to have calmed down slightly in the last few days as markets continue to digest huge fiscal expansion plans from Germany and the European Union. At the same time, many forecasters have been downgrading their US growth projections after reassessing the level of pain President Trump seems willing to inflict on the US economy in order to implement his policy agenda.
Read more
Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook
3 Mar 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Market moves and headlines - not enough to change macro outlook

Last week, risky assets continued to experience a somewhat volatile period. The tone was generally a risk off one, with correlations between risk free and risky assets back to negative.
Read more
Could bank deregulation explain resilience in US Treasuries?
14 Feb 2025 TwentyFour Blog

Could bank deregulation explain resilience in US Treasuries?

In a week when US core consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 0.4% month-on-month and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank was in “no hurry” to cut interest rates, many market participants have been surprised by the relatively muted reaction in US Treasuries (USTs).
Read more
Should investors care about negative swap spreads?
13 Nov 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Should investors care about negative swap spreads?

The relationship between government bond yields and swap rates – otherwise known as the swap spread – has been increasingly in focus, with the market’s attention turning to Europe last week as the 10-year German Bund yield traded higher than the 10-year euro swap rate for the first time ever.
Read more
Lower rates a bigger risk for bank equities than for bonds
13 Aug 2024 TwentyFour Blog

Lower rates a bigger risk for bank equities than for bonds

Market attention in the government bond market has rapidly turned from central banks holding rates “higher for longer” to the potential for “lower and sooner".
Read more
This strange economic cycle is finally starting to look familiar
10 Jul 2024 TwentyFour Blog

This strange economic cycle is finally starting to look familiar

There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms.
Read more
Thoughts on the shape of the curve
8 Aug 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Thoughts on the shape of the curve

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at how inverted government bond curves are at the moment and how previous episodes of normalisation have unwound, as curves normalised, exploring the possibilities of how the unwinding process could happen and how long it could take.
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24 Feb 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Are markets finally following the Fed?

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.
Read more
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