TwentyFour

After a constructive 2025 for fixed income markets, marked by falling interest rates and steady global growth, investors are looking ahead to what’s in store for 2026.

Historically, one of the key sources of stability in European ABS has been ratings. The market has long seen upgrades consistently outnumber downgrades, even during periods of stress, most recently during Covid-19.

On Monday, risk markets opened on the front foot after largely shrugging off the weekend’s geopolitical news. Stock markets rallied, led by large-cap energy companies that stand to benefit from the "opening" of Venezuelan oil markets, while credit spreads were tighter across the board, continuing the positive trend seen at the end of last year.

The new year has begun with a jolt for market participants after the US carried out a military operation in Caracas over the weekend, capturing Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

European ABS investors saw just the second solar loan-backed deal price recently, a German offering titled Golden Ray 2. The transaction marks a further incremental development towards sustainable financing in the European securitisation market. It also comes at a time when the much larger and established US solar market has encountered headwinds.

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.

As we approach the end of 2025, we have been taking stock of the key themes of the year and any lessons we can take from them. It has been a strong year for European high yield (HY) credit, with solid performance for the index as a whole and average yields compressed by around 40bp over the course of the year.

Nothing beats an 11-hour flight back to London for evaluating the outlook for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs), having attended the Opal CLO conference in California.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a report setting out a number of proposals for simplifying the regulatory framework for banks.

As we approach the end of a year that has seen risk assets shrug off US tariffs and mounting concerns over AI-driven tech valuations, TwentyFour Asset Management’s portfolio management team selects the seven key questions that they believe will define 2026 for fixed income investors.

Late last month, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) published updated migration numbers for the year to June 2025. As we argued here, immigration will be an important variable to monitor when it comes to assessing the health of labour markets.

After solid stress test results from UK insurers last week, on Tuesday it was the banks’ turn as the Bank of England (BoE) published its 2025 stress test results along with December’s Financial Stability Report.