Multi-Sector Bonds

Johnathan Owen, Portfolio Management, reflects on why the AT1 market has been brought into the spotlight this year, following the events of the US regional banking crisis and Credit Suisse.

After what can only be described as a relatively dire year for fixed income in 2022, during which spiralling inflation led to one of the most aggressive rate hiking cycles on record, we believe the market for bonds is now looking much healthier.

Since the last Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on September 20, rates markets have sold off very aggressively. And, despite rates being left on hold, the hawkish message, which included the possibility of another hike this year and less cuts next year than previously forecast, was one of the key contributing factors behind the ~55bps increase in the 10-year treasury in the 10 days following that meeting.

This paper takes a deep dive into the flourishing ESG sector and examines the trends, challenges, and opportunities that have emerged in recent years, with a particular focus on data quality, the expansion of ESG labelled bonds, action from central banks and whether or not the green premium or ‘greenium’ makes sense for issuers.

George Curtis, Portfolio Management explores how our portfolio will perform in the event we don’t get the expected soft landing.  

Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.

Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.

An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

In our MSB update, a member of the Multi-Sector Bond team reflects on the banking turmoil that occurred in Q2, as well as happenings around the US debt ceiling and global inflation. She then goes on to discuss the ways the MSB team have responded to Q2 events.

What can we expect from central banks this week? Felipe Villarroel looks at how recent CPI prints in the Eurozone and in the United States are expected to influence upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions.

What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working.