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  • Flash Fixed Income: Iran shock is driving central banks apart
  • Iran, energy shocks and the inflation challenge
  • CLOs reprice as software and geopolitics test sentiment
  • Flash Fixed Income: AI and the software sell-off
  • What the bear case on AI is missing
  • This isn’t 2022, but inflation threat is real
  • Navigating 2026 risks with short-dated credit
  • Record supply amid Iran turmoil shows weight of demand for bonds
  • Is number of UK savers a problem for the Bank of England?
  • European banks carry profit momentum into 2026
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    This isn’t 2022, but inflation threat is real
    This isn’t 2022, but inflation threat is real
    With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

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US

Savings ratios diverging dynamics
Aug 04 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Diverging dynamics in savings ratios

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.
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Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up
Aug 02 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.
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Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative
Jul 19 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Reinvestment risk growing, along with the soft landing narrative

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.
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Soft landing narrative taking hold
Jul 18 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Soft landing narrative taking hold

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.
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US debt - stuck in a vicious cycle
Jun 01 2023 TwentyFour Blog

US debt - stuck in a vicious cycle

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.
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Fed minutes: A tale of two camps
May 25 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Fed minutes: A tale of two camps

What do the release of the Fed minutes tell us about the forward path for monetary policy? Danny Zaid argues that for market participants looking for clarity, the minutes, provide more questions than answers.
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US Corporate Earnings On Par
May 17 2023 TwentyFour Blog

US corporate earnings: On par

As we come to the end of a much anticipated earnings season what are the key takeaways?
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Financial conditions tighten further but could have been worse
May 09 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Financial conditions tighten further but could have been worse

Following the publication of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, Felipe Villarroel highlights what caught our attention in the report and if it signals further tightening of financial conditions.
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Labour markets continue to cool off
Apr 21 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Labour markets continue to cool off

Partner and Portfolio Manager Felipe Villarroel looks at new labour market data from the US and why this is good news for the Fed. 
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Bank results should see levels begin to normalise
Apr 17 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Bank results should see levels begin to normalise

With the US bank earning season having begun last Friday, Dillon Lancaster believes this could be a catalyst to help spreads begin to recover.
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Apr 05 2023 TwentyFour Blog

Tighter financial conditions might herald end to rate hikes

Is the end of rate hikes near for the US? Concerns over regional banks and a weakening labour market are raising questions about the Fed's next move.
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Mar 28 2023 TwentyFour Blog

What is in the price of AT1s after the sell off?

After a volatile few days in bank capital, Felipe Villarroel looks at how AT1s are pricing after the sell off.
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