TwentyFour

Yesterday, 10yr Gilts closed at 1.510%.  Whilst that individual yield level does not sound particularly significant, in a historical context it is possibly one of the most important month end closing levels I have witnessed in more than 25 years in the markets.

As we provide lots of commentary on the maturing economic cycles and monetary policy across the globe, we thought it was worth highlighting some points from Fitch’s recently published Global Housing Update and its useful insights into how the global housing markets are faring.

Our forecasts for longer dated government bonds were for yields to gradually rise during 2018, but not in an uncontrolled manner.

As the credit cycle develops across different economies, our asset allocation changes to reflect that, and if it looks to be at a mature stage in a specific country then our natural focus on credit quality becomes more important; we are always trying to avoid next year’s problem credits, whether in the financial, corporate or securitised markets.

1994 was my first full year in the markets, and what a baptism of fire it was.

As we start the new year and approach the 5th anniversary since the issue of the first European Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond (BBVA 9% Perp-18), it is a good time to re-assess the sector in the current market.

As most of our readers know, ABS is an asset class that lends itself well to detailed underwriting, from onsite due diligence through to cashflow and risk modelling.

The magnitude of the strong beginning to the year has probably surprised even those who were forecasting a positive start to 2018.

The BTL sector has taken a bit of a pounding over the last couple of years, as authorities introduced a number of harsh measures to counter fears of “financial stability risks” posed by growth in lending, with concerns that future financial tightening could lead to a surge in landlords looking to exit the market should they become stressed, and subsequently cause a house price crash.  The measures included:

After what has been a terrific year for risk in 2017, making our predictions for the upcoming year is all the more challenging. The risks we won’t be taking seem to be much easier to list than those that we will, so we’ll start with those. But before we embark on 2018, we should review our predictions for 2017.

Just two months ago, in Gilts Go Gangbusters, we argued that having long-dated conventional Gilts with cash prices of over 200 was unsustainable in the long term.

We are not in the habit of writing when a lot of our readers are on holiday, however we know many of you still follow events closely even while off, and we felt this event was particularly newsworthy.