TwentyFour

Despite higher interest rates and cost of living increases across jurisdictions, there is no sign as yet of any impact on issuance levels in European consumer ABS.

A lot has happened since our last blog about the state of affairs in the European High Yield (HY) market. At the time, the sector had just seen three of the largest capital structures of Altice France, Ardagh Group and Intrum AB announce restructuring advisors in quick succession, with growing fears that it would represent the start of a wider default trend.

George Curtis (Portfolio Management), from our Multi-Sector Bond team provided a comprehensive understanding of the key aspects of yield curves.

In this inaugural edition of Flash Fixed Income, we look at the highly unpredictable US presidential election and explain why a potential second Trump administration could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to deliver more rate cuts.

Over the last few months in the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) market we have seen a growing trend of issuers “pre-funding” their transactions even earlier. In some cases, such as Belgium’s KBC and Austria’s Erste Bank, bonds with expected call dates in 2025 have been tendered and replaced with new issues over a year early.

After years of decline in China’s property market and limited, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsuccessful attempts by the country’s authorities to provide some sort of solution, details have emerged over the last few weeks of a more coherent plan to stop the bleeding.

Over the past decade, private credit has grown from a $400bn niche industry into a $1.6tr market that competes with more traditional asset classes for significant investor allocations.

George Curtis from the Multi-Sector Bond (MSB) team at TwentyFour Asset Management reflects on the third quarter of 2024 and its impact on credit and equity markets. Despite some mid-quarter volatility, overall performance remained strong, with government bonds leading the way.

As the third quarter of 2024 comes to a close, TwentyFour Asset Management's Aza Teeuwen reflects on what this has meant for the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) team. Not only were volumes across European ABS elevated throughout July and August, we also saw €34 billion in primary issuance – a significant increase from previous years.

Chris Bowie at TwentyFour Asset Management describes the third quarter of 2024 as a significant turning point in fixed income markets, marked by the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) for the first time in many years. This followed an earlier 25bp cut by the Bank of England (BoE), setting the scene for further rate cuts over the coming years.

Friday’s blockbuster jobs report saw a sharp sell-off in the government bond markets, with 10-year US Treasuries selling off by close to 15 basis points (bps), while the 2-year US Treasuries posted a 30 bps move in the same direction, dragging gilts and German bunds with them.

With cracks starting to show in the US economy, many are wondering whether tight corporate bond spreads leave investors vulnerable. But with corporate balance sheets holding firm and yields on higher quality bonds looking attractive, staying invested in credit should continue to reward investors.