Monetary Policy

After a horrible year for financial markets in 2022, the macro-outlook for 2023 had a lot of consensus views, with most predicting a much better year ahead, helped by supportive rate cuts from central banks and positive returns from both government bonds and credit.  

Following yesterday’s publication of the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOs) by the Fed, it revealed how lending conditions have evolved over the quarter amongst US banks.

George Curtis breaks down the latest developments following this week’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee update.

Yesterday, market participants received two important reports about the state of the economy in the Eurozone. Firstly, the October Markit PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index - reports showed a continued deterioration in growth in the manufacturing as well as the services sector.

This morning the ONS published its monthly update on the UK labour market. Of all the G7 countries, the UK has had the most puzzling labour market dynamics post pandemic, as we discussed in a previous blog.

Fixed income investors have gone through a stressful few weeks. Since the beginning of September, government bond yields have moved sharply higher, causing spreads to widen and returns to worsen across the board. 

As we commence upon earnings season, we will be paying close attention to another round of updates from the US regional banks, particularly within the context of a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. With wider adoption of a soft-landing view, as well as a higher treasury yield backdrop, we explore what implications this has for the US regional banks.

The last few weeks has seen a sharp move up in long dated Treasuries, since the week of the FOMC meeting in September the US 10 year has moved up 45bp to 4.75% with a brief flirt with 4.90% in the meantime

Following the recent publication of the European Central Bank's monthly “Monetary Developments in the Euro Area” report, Felipe Villarroel takes a deep dive into how this report evidences the impact that successive rate hikes are having on the economy

Are central banks now at a point where they are done with hiking cycles and are we seeing a positive outcome for fixed income?

Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.

Felipe Villarroel argues that it will not be long before we see yields in fixed income assets at levels markedly above spot inflation which could translate in investors racing to lock in those yields.