Fixed income opportunities in a soft landing scenario
After a difficult 2022, bonds may be poised for unusually high returns compared to historic averages. And not just in the US -- we see opportunities in European CLOs and RMBS. They offer double digit yields for short-dated debt and look very attractive on a relative value basis compared to domestic credit.
Signs of life in European CMBS
Europe recently saw the re-emergence of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (#CMBS) issuance, with Blackstone sponsored Last Mile Logistics 2023-1 deal, marking the first return since March 2022 from sponsor Blackstone and the first European CMBS issuance of any kind since last April.
Thoughts on the shape of the curve
Felipe Villarroel takes a look at how inverted government bond curves are at the moment and how previous episodes of normalisation have unwound, as curves normalised, exploring the possibilities of how the unwinding process could happen and how long it could take.
Diverging dynamics in savings ratios
As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.
Banks have done their part – now will markets catch up
Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.
BoE stress test shows resilience of the UK RMBS market
Elena Rinaldi lays out analysis from the team's recreation of the BoE's bank stress test from a mortgage default and loss point of view, applying it to a benchmark UK RMBS BBB-rated bond. Ultimately finding that this type of analysis gives us confidence that the UK RMBS market can withstand stresses beyond those applied by the BoE.