Macroeconomics

With rates volatility persisting and developed markets likely sliding toward recession, Jack Daley revisits our research on BBB defaults and returns and explains why we tend to maintain a significant allocation to BBB credit.

With the UK’s mini-Budget sending its currency and bonds into freefall, Gordon Shannon says both the government and the Bank of England need to learn the importance of communication with the markets.

With reaction to the UK’s mini-budget roiling markets for a second day, Felipe Villarroel looks at what higher rates and a weaker currency mean for the UK economy.

Demand for floating rate assets has driven a strong reopening of the European ABS primary market, and is drawing new investors to the asset class, says Kevin Law.

With US inflation data once again hammering markets, Mark Holman says that with US Treasury yields likely approaching their peak, a shift in sentiment for risk assets isn’t far away.

Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.

Investors are eyeing a peak in inflation once more after US data came in lower than expected for the first time this year, and with credit finally seeing positive flows again, George Curtis sees markets grinding tighter over the rest of the summer.

With the Bank of England doling out a double dose of doom on UK inflation and growth on Thursday, Eoin Walsh says it is refreshing for investors to get such a candid assessment from a central bank.

Douglas Charleston looks at the development of the European ABS market in the second quarter of 2022 and explains what this could mean for investors going forward.

US banks remain bullish about the health of the consumer, but credit spreads are still pricing in not only a recession, but a fairly severe one. Are the banks wrong? Or have credit markets just backed up too far on negative fund flows?

With corporate bond spreads having risen to not far short of crisis levels, Johnathan Owen argues the 4%-plus yields on offer in short dated investment grade are an attractive entry point for investors that might not be around for long.

With investors seemingly unwilling to put money to work until they see clear evidence of the inflation trend reversing, Felipe Villarroel looks at two developments that tentatively suggest central banks’ delicate balancing act is actually working.