Macroeconomics

The direction of monetary policy rates going forward is more clear, following the Federal Reserve's release of its new summary of economic projections and the dovish remarks of Jerome Powell.

Following October’s encouraging US CPI report and the subsequent comments from Federal Reserve officials, financial markets now anticipate that the Fed has completed its rate hiking cycle having reached terminal rates.

After a horrible year for financial markets in 2022, the macro-outlook for 2023 had a lot of consensus views, with most predicting a much better year ahead, helped by supportive rate cuts from central banks and positive returns from both government bonds and credit.  

The cuts are coming as the cycle of interest-rate hikes ends. In his latest blog, George Curtis discusses how falling inflation, weaker job reports, and signs of a European recession are reshaping expectations for interest rates.

As we dive into the festive season, recent retail sales hint at a mixed bag for US retailers. In his latest blog, David Norris tells us what it all means for the health of the consumer and guides us through the latest events.

Yesterday unveiled the latest Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Europe, bringing a mix of economic news. Dive into the results with Felipe Villarroel as he looks at the numbers and what they mean for central banks in the battle against inflation.

After what can only be described as a relatively dire year for fixed income in 2022, during which spiralling inflation led to one of the most aggressive rate hiking cycles on record, we believe the market for bonds is now looking much healthier.

Since the last Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on September 20, rates markets have sold off very aggressively. And, despite rates being left on hold, the hawkish message, which included the possibility of another hike this year and less cuts next year than previously forecast, was one of the key contributing factors behind the ~55bps increase in the 10-year treasury in the 10 days following that meeting.

The labour market has been one of the major headaches the Bank of England has had to deal with in their battle against inflation. Yesterday the ONS released their monthly labour market update and although some of those headaches’ causes are not abating, there are others that are actually showing signs of progress.

Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market.

Pauline Quirin asks the question "How are UK mortgages weathering the storm?", exploring pre and post Global Financial Crisis mortgages and how the surge in rates has impacted the performance of UK RMBS.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.