The TwentyFour Blog

A volatile last couple of weeks have certainly kept fixed income investors fastened firmly in their seats, with comments from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell suggesting US monetary policy was “nowhere near neutrality” sending shock waves through global rates, credit and equity markets.

This year has been a big one for sterling bond supply, especially in the ABS market. With the end of the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme and the comeback of traditional bank issuers, UK issuance volume year-to-date has totalled €25bn from 38 deals placed across different asset classes.

This morning the much anticipated Q3 2018 Credit Conditions Survey was released by the Bank of England.

It may come as a surprise to some that the country currently experiencing the fastest pace of monetary tightening across developed nations is in Europe, where the main refinancing rate is well and truly anchored at -0.40%.

With September now behind us, colder mornings and darker nights approaching it seems an opportune time to take stock of how the primary market reopened this year after its traditional summer lull.

This morning we arrived to the news that the Italian government was preparing a budget that had a deficit of 2.4%.

Having listened carefully to the FOMC news conference last night, the message to us was clear – the Fed is pushing ahead with its normalisation of rates and the gradual shrinking of its balance sheet.

Those of you who have seen or heard one of our presentations will be aware of the significant impact that the FX-basis currently has on our relative value bond selection.

There have been a number of recent articles in the mainstream press about the 10 year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, with some saying familiar risks are emerging and questioning whether lessons have been learned.

A few weeks ago we wrote about the geopolitical risks helping to keep credit spreads wider in Europe and the UK and keeping a lid on US Treasury yields (Is It Time to Buy the Dip?).

In the early 1990s, Marvel comics introduced a world 100 years in the future with new stories for its popular heroes and villains. Doctor Doom's story was called "The Doom of Tomorrow".

This is a crucial week for Turkey’s economy and the Central Bank of Turkey’s credibility.