The TwentyFour Blog

I think it’s likely we’ll see new cycle tights for the European CLO sector this year, so in addition to healthy income we believe there is plenty of room for capital appreciation as prices are being pushed higher in the secondary market.

We think this current pause in the global rally is healthy and gives investors a rare moment to reassess, but from a fixed income credit point of view we would not expect too much of a dip.

European ABS primary markets have started 2021 at the solid pace that most market participants expected. The market saw a patchy Q4 in which activity petered out early, not helped by the dominant UK market suffering some hesitation whilst tightrope Brexit deal talks went to the wire, but also as a result of a rather more simple fatigue that appeared to have set in.

In our view the rationale for the premium is certainly weakening and, of course, we can no longer call it a ‘Brexit’ premium.

For high yield issuers 2021 has started in a similar vein to 2020, with the technical backdrop providing an attractive environment for capital raising.

Our analysis indicates European ABS investors can carry forward little concern about nasty default surprises, and this is likely to be important when considering total returns for 2021.

At the moment CLO spreads are tightening, as they are right across credit. However, we haven’t had any CLO primary deals come to market so far in 2021, so we are operating in a bit of an informational vacuum, at which point these cross-asset class comparisons can be useful.

As we have said many times over the past few months, this cycle is likely to be remembered (among other reasons) as being exceptional for its unprecedented momentum.

The biggest mover so far this year in fixed income markets has been US Treasuries. The curve has bear steepened, with the short end remaining unchanged while longer maturities have sold off by anything between 10bp at the five-year point of the curve and just over 20bp in the 30-year.

While we enter 2021 with plenty of negative headline news on the virus, along with the associated inevitable downgrade or delay to the economic recovery, in our view the technical position remains just as firm as it has been in the last nine months.

Yesterday the ECB released their guidance to banks regarding shareholder distributions. They have reiterated that banks should exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration (bonus payments) and have set limits for dividend payments to equity holders and prudence on any share buy-back schemes.

As we are nearing the end of 2020 and assessing pockets of potential value going into 2021, we have to question the strong rally we have just experienced and assess the attractiveness of the hybrid spread multiple and whether or not we can expect further compression.