The TwentyFour Blog

Following the release of the Monthly Labour Market Overview, Felipe Villarroel highlights key takeaways on the tightness of the UK’s labour market. He assesses the changes to the demand and supply of the labour force - focusing on the ‘Inactivty Rate’, “Long-Term Sick” and “Retired” categories, and migration trends - and what this means for wage inflation.

As we enter earnings season, Felipe Villarroel believes a new topic of interest on many market participant's mind is US regional banks. From a macro point of view, one topic markets are likely to focus on includes to what degree, if at all, have deposits returned in any size to the sector?

As mid-year investment bank reviews hit our screens, we are seeing a shared expectation of spread decompression between IG and HY bonds, signalling rising defaults. Pierre Beniguel argues that tightening HY spreads and resilient performance suggest surprising sector support due to lower issuance and available cash.

Thames Water has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons in the past week. In our latest blog, Johnathan Owen explores their operational struggles, how the potential nationalisation raises concerns for investors and the wider implications for green bonds.

Felipe Villarroel discusses the observations of the median long run rate and what this means for the neutral rate.

Last week Aza Teeuwen and our ABS team visited the Global ABS conference in Barcelona. One key discussion point in CLOs was around the lack of leveraged loan supply and the resultant sharp slowdown in the primary market

In a week with several important releases and monetary policy decisions, what have we learnt?

BBVA have announced they are issuing a new AT1. What does this mean for the market? Eoin Walsh believes this could be the catalyst investors have been waiting for to help AT1 spreads grind tighter.

What can we expect from central banks this week? Felipe Villarroel looks at how recent CPI prints in the Eurozone and in the United States are expected to influence upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions.

What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working.

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.

There has been a noticeable pick up in the European ABS new issuance market this year, with demand far outstripping supply. John Lawler looks at what makes a UK RMBS deal ‘Prime’, and why not all deals are the same.