The TwentyFour Blog
T-Bill and Chill: Running out of steam?
Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.
French politics: déjà vu
France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.
What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?
With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.
Reciprocal tariffs, but not as we know them
“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.
Whatever It Takes, the German edition
Overnight, the CDU/CSU (the winner of the latest German election) and the SPD (the leader of the current parliament set to end on March 25) announced Germany’s largest fiscal policy shift in decades.
Tracking Trump’s tariffs
Markets had their first taste of Trump Tariffs 2.0 on Monday after levies on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese exports were announced over the weekend.
Fed and ECB meetings point to divergence in paths
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.
CLO popularity growing but secondary could offer better value
It has been two weeks since the primary market for collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) re-opened and 2025 has already proven to be quite a year from multiple angles.
Tariffs are the noise. Housing is the signal.
Much of the discussion around inflation over the past few months has centred on the potential for US tariffs, a focus that has only intensified following Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Corporate sector on solid ground entering 2025
One of the key reasons we see credit continuing to outperform government bonds over the medium term is corporate fundamentals.
Q1 2024 déjà vu as inflation data soothes rates sell-off
Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.
Servicers key as UK rates put pressure on pre-crisis RMBS
Last week Fitch Ratings published a report concerning asset performance deterioration in UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).