US Yield Curve Set To Continue Underperforming
In summary things are going quite well, and in this scenario a rise in government bond yields does not necessarily bring about a tightening of financial conditions.
Insights Topic
US
Comprehending The Treasury Move
A couple of weeks ago we wrote about Treasuries breaking new ground and the potential for them to go higher as higher inflation expectations gathered pace.
US Treasuries Hit By Inflation Expectations
Our end of year view on the 10 year is 1.50, but we could get there a lot quicker - now is not the time to be brave on Treasuries.
Time to Test The Water in CCCs?
We think it is indeed time to begin the search for recovery stories and deleveraging credits in sectors where the execution strategy is likely to succeed.
Default Peaks May Already Be Behind Us
We think this current pause in the global rally is healthy and gives investors a rare moment to reassess, but from a fixed income credit point of view we would not expect too much of a dip.
January Sales Suggest Continued Credit Squeeze
While we enter 2021 with plenty of negative headline news on the virus, along with the associated inevitable downgrade or delay to the economic recovery, in our view the technical position remains just as firm as it has been in the last nine months.
Time to Get Tactical in Treasuries?
Regular readers will know that we have a positive medium term view of spread products. This is based on a number of factors; valuations in our view are reasonably attractive compared to history, we are convinced that both monetary and fiscal stimulus will remain in place for an extended period of time, and perhaps most importantly we remain at a very early stage of the new cycle.
Pre-Election Bond Outlook
In this short video, TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman outlines what he expects to see from bond markets in the next few weeks, and explains why he thinks fiscal stimulus in the US can be the catalyst for the rally to resume in the medium term.
Mind the Gap
With September set to be the first negative month for most risk asset markets since March, it is worth analysing what has been driving the reversal.
How technicals have overwhelmed fundamentals
David Norris, Head of US Credit, discusses technicals in his latest video.
Why did Q2 see record bond issuance?
Jack Daley discusses the record bond issuance that was seen in Q2 2020 across gross and net levels in global fixed income markets, particularly in Europe and the US.
Fed’s Revised Consensus Statement
The tweak that we will read so much about with respect to the inflation goal is that the new policy can be viewed as a “flexible form of inflation targeting”, meaning that following periods when inflation has been running below 2pc, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2pc for some time.