16 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog Health of US small business: an indicator for the US economy The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey can most certainly be considered an important report that monitors the pulse of the US economy. Read more
19 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Maturity wall: what maturity wall? We saw a great disparity among strategists in terms of default-rate projections for this year. With the cost for corporates to refinance their debt considerably higher than we saw in 2020 and 2021, and an elevated volume of upcoming maturities, many market participants predicted a default rate markedly higher than what we have seen so far. Read more
16 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Shelter component exposes the Fed's ‘last mile’ battle with inflation The January US consumer price index (CPI) data came in stronger than expected with core month-on-month figures coming in at 0.4 % (0.3% expected) and year-on-year figures at 3.9% (3.7% expected) but unchanged from December’s 3.9% print. Read more
12 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog US Credit shows healthy supply and demand dynamics US corporate bond primary markets have had a robust start to the year as both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) companies have looked to take advantage of the recent rally in rates and spreads that we have experienced since Fed Chairman Powell's December FOMC comments up until his more cautious stance in the January meeting. Read more
9 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Next week’s CPI numbers will provide more clues on rate cuts Next week markets will receive January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints from the US and the UK, which will no doubt be widely followed. In the US, the Bloomberg consensus is for a significant drop in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9%, while core is expected to decline by a less spectacular 20 bps from 3.9% to 3.7%. For the UK, consensus is for a small increase in CPI inflation from 4.0% to 4.1%. Read more
5 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Issuer calls drive AT1 spread compression A few weeks ago, JP Morgan skipped a call on one of its $1,000 par preference shares (“US Prefs”). The perpetual notes had a coupon of 6.75% payable until Jan’24, with a subsequent reset of 3-month SOFR + 404bps. Post the non-call, the coupon changed to 9.35% and will continue to reset every 3 months. Read more
1 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog ‘Let’s be honest, this is a good economy’: the Fed’s comments unpicked Yesterday was an eventful day for markets. We started off with inflation data in Europe, followed by an earnings release by New York Community Bank that showed large provisions in their commercial real estate loan book, before moving onto the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting Read more
29 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog PCE data brought something for everyone The long-awaited Personal Income and Outlays report for December was released last Friday. This piece produced by the U.S.’ Bureau of Economic Analysis contains information about personal income, savings rates and very importantly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of the economy. Read more
22 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog Will the uptick in US consumer credit influence Fed Policy? The worsening US consumer credit data has largely fallen under radar. A few weeks ago, November 2023 data came in at $23.8bn representing a substantial increase from October’s $5.77bn and September’s $10.9bn. Read more
18 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog Fed Governor tempers expectations on US rate cuts Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave a speech on November 28 titled: “Something Appears to Be Giving”, where he laid out the reasons why he is becoming more confident of the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Read more
12 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog US CPI numbers show the downward path for inflation is likely to be bumpy December’s CPI inflation report showed numbers slightly ahead of consensus in the US. On a month-on-month basis, headline CPI came at 0.3% compared to a Bloomberg consensus of 0.2%, whereas core CPI figures were in line with said consensus at 0.3%. Read more
10 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog Flows into corporate credit take off as we power into 2024 We recently highlighted in our 2024 outlook our expectations of significant inflows into fixed income to be an important technical driver of performance in the year ahead. Read more