Flash Fixed Income: Forget tariffs, watch the US labour market
The Trump administration’s immigration policy leaves the US labour market at a pivotal juncture.
Insights Topic
US
European fixed income offers value, not just diversification
The turbulent start to 2025 has sent many investors seeking alternatives to US assets, but in our view European fixed income can offer more than just diversification.
Flash Fixed Income: Rates calm before the storm?
Softer US economic data means the pressures on UST yields now look more balanced, but headlines around President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair are just one reason investors should expect rates volatility to continue.
Oil, Iran and why markets are staying calm
Despite Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, markets seem to be completely disregarding the possibility of this conflict mutating into something serious for the global economy.
Tariff turnaround resets the outlook for fixed income
While tariffs have done meaningful damage to the economic outlook and raised volatility in rates markets, the softening of the US stance has restored confidence in credit returns for 2025.
Section 899: A big, beautiful source of uncertainty for foreign investors?
As markets digest and speculate about the implications of the Trump administration’s 1,000+ page One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), new details are beginning to emerge.
Reaction to eventful Monday bodes well for markets
Monday was a somewhat eventful day for markets with several headlines in the US and Europe. Risk assets did not necessarily reflect the eventfulness of the day, finishing virtually unchanged, while rates had a volatile day that ultimately produced a sizeable rally.
Flash Fixed Income: Are markets complacent on tariff risks?
The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.
US Autos: a bottom-up view of tariffs and the macro
Thus far in 2025, the prevailing and overriding topic of conversation amongst economists and market participants has been tariffs and what they might mean for the global macro outlook.
What does UK deal tell us about tariffs?
With much fanfare, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer announced a “historic” trade deal between the US and UK on Thursday. The main points for the UK are a reduction in auto tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars that enter the US, and the removal of steel and aluminium tariffs.
The state of play in fixed income after April turmoil
April was one of the most volatile months across financial markets in recent memory, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2.
Was negative US growth actually negative?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate for Q1 US GDP growth, which at -0.3% was slightly worse than the Bloomberg consensus of -0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), seasonally adjusted, annualised basis.