US

October brought the first serious bout of volatility in corporate bond markets for some time, with two high-profile US bankruptcies raising fears of a more systemic issue in credit.

Economic data this week will be weird, and for central bankers it might not be wonderful. In the US, not only will we endure the aberration of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data being published on a Thursday, but we’ll also get several late macro data releases with the government shutdown put off until at least January.

For some time now, collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) have in our view been one of the standout risk-adjusted opportunities in all of fixed income, and in recent years (including this one) their performance has lived up to that billing.

In 2017, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) was preparing to shrink its balance sheet, then-chair Janet Yellen famously described the process of quantitative tightening (QT) as being "like watching paint dry."

Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve (Fed) colleagues decided to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4% at last week’s policy meeting, marking 150bp of cuts since the cycle began in September 2024.

Amid tariffs, bankruptcies, and uncertainty, credit fundamentals remain strong. Elevated yields and solid corporate balance sheets favour income-focused fixed income strategies over government bonds, even as volatility persists.

The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) has formally ceased operations as a member-based organisation, following a vote by its remaining members. This marks the end of what we believe is one of the most significant collective efforts to align global banking with the goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

Amidst an economic data blackout caused by the US government shutdown, markets received a bit of positive news on Friday with the release of the US CPI report which showed consumer prices in September increased at a slower pace than expected.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

The sharp sell-off in loans tied to First Brands Group, a US auto-parts supplier, has rippled through credit markets in recent weeks — but for investors' outstanding senior secured loans held in Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs), the damage appears modest and distinct from reported off balance sheet financings.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

Oracle priced an $18bn six-tranche (5yr/7yr/10yr/20yr/30yr/40yr) bond deal which was increased from an initial $15bn on the back of exceptionally strong demand. It is the latest sign that the AI investment boom, long the focus of equity markets, is now spilling into credit.