UK

The start of the school year ordinarily also marks the end of summer for the primary bond markets as issuance restarts, though this year feels rather different.

It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).

When the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for the first time in four years earlier this month, we thought the move – made on a knife-edge 5-4 vote – had come a little too early.

Second quarter growth data for the Eurozone on Tuesday reaffirmed the gradual uptick in the region’s trajectory relative to the pace seen across 2023, with quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth slightly higher than expectations at 0.3%.

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) published a speech by its Executive Director for Markets, Victoria Saporta, in which she laid out the central bank’s evolving role as a lender to the UK banking system. More specifically, the speech highlighted how the BoE expects to see UK banks having a greater reliance on its funding facilities going forward.

Excess savings have been at the centre of heated debates among economists and market participants ever since the pandemic.

Back in April we looked in detail at the challenges and potential outcomes facing Thames Water, the debt-laden UK utility company battling to avoid government intervention. On the back of a lacklustre set of financial results and being placed into a “turnaround oversight regime” by the regulator Ofwat, Thames Water’s situation took a further turn for the worse last week.

For any fixed income investors that follow the England football team, the plan for H2 2024 may feel somewhat familiar – no substitutions in the second half.

The global financial crisis was a seismic shock to banking systems globally, and triggered a regulatory marathon with banks having to adapt to a far stricter set of rules (known as Basel III) set out by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS).

The latest UK inflation figures will bring some relief for consumers, but beneath the headline figure the Bank of England’s (BoE) policymakers face a more complex picture that suggests interest rate cuts may still be some way off.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation as an entrée was well received by the diners, prompting a 15 basis points (bps) rally in the 10-year Treasury. The main course though, was met with some adverse critiques as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a slightly more hawkish dot plot than expected.

For the fixed income fanatics amongst us, June was always going to be one for the books with all three of the major central banks meeting, elections, and continued data.