Government Bonds

In the last month, global government bond curves have had a torrid time, with significant steepening seen across US Treasury, UK Gilt and German Bund yields.

From time to time, Treasury yields actually become the source of risk for financial markets.

On Wednesday, the Fed moved one step closer to tapering and even put quite a clear timeframe for it, while on Thursday, the Bank of England openly talked about rate hikes.

Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out

As we rapidly descend upon the fourth quarter of this extraordinary year, we think some of the risks fixed income investors faced back in Q1 will rear their heads again before the end of 2021.

TwentyFour's CEO, Mark Holman, discusses market conditions in Q2 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

Whether the Bank of England halts all purchases in August or merely begins to slow the pace of purchasing later in Q4 this year, by 2022, less technical support will exist for gilts.

We believe UK government bonds are ultimately most vulnerable to a rise in inflation, and the 10-year Gilt currently trading at 0.73% does not come close to compensating for this.

In TwentyFour's Multi-Sector Bond update on Thursday 13th May 2021, Partner & Portfolio Manager Eoin Walsh provided an update on investment themes and positioning in the fixed income market.

In TwentyFour's quarterly update, Mark Holman discussed his outlook for the bellwether US Treasury curve, and explained how he thinks investors can still look to pick up yield while avoiding traditionally more rate-sensitive markets.

George Curtis discusses how credit markets have performed in Q1 2021 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

With treasury yields moving aggressively higher this year, anyone reading or listening to the financial press will have become very accustomed to headlines highlighting the negative performance of “Bonds”.