Absolute Return Bonds

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.

October brought the first serious bout of volatility in corporate bond markets for some time, with two high-profile US bankruptcies raising fears of a more systemic issue in credit.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

With the Fed’s stance suggesting it is prioritising growth over sticky inflation risks, volatility in longer dated bonds is likely to persist and the case for increasing duration in fixed income is not compelling.