Multi-Sector Bond Quarterly Update – January 2021
George Curtis discusses credit markets in Q4 2020 and provides his outlook for the year ahead
Insights Topic
TwentyFour
Trio of HY Deals Could Set Tone for 2021
For high yield issuers 2021 has started in a similar vein to 2020, with the technical backdrop providing an attractive environment for capital raising.
ABS in 2021: Spread Tightening and Supply Surprises
Our analysis indicates European ABS investors can carry forward little concern about nasty default surprises, and this is likely to be important when considering total returns for 2021.
Where Yields Are Higher Than High Yield
At the moment CLO spreads are tightening, as they are right across credit. However, we haven’t had any CLO primary deals come to market so far in 2021, so we are operating in a bit of an informational vacuum, at which point these cross-asset class comparisons can be useful.
Fast Moving Cycle
As we have said many times over the past few months, this cycle is likely to be remembered (among other reasons) as being exceptional for its unprecedented momentum.
Why We Are Now More Bearish on US Treasuries
The biggest mover so far this year in fixed income markets has been US Treasuries. The curve has bear steepened, with the short end remaining unchanged while longer maturities have sold off by anything between 10bp at the five-year point of the curve and just over 20bp in the 30-year.
How big a threat is inflation?
Partner and Portfolio Manager Felipe Villarroel reflects on markets in 2020 before giving his inflation outlook for 2021
Our view on high yield defaults
In his latest video, George Curtis discusses our views on high yield defaults over the last few months and what he thinks we can expect in 2021
A strong outlook for CLOs
Elena Rinaldi looks back at the performance of European CLOs in 2020 and explains how post-vaccine sentiment should help boost recovery in 2021, providing a positive outlook for CLOs.
More upside in bank capital
Partner and portfolio manager Gary Kirk discusses why he thinks AT1s continue to look attractive in the search for yield.
January Sales Suggest Continued Credit Squeeze
While we enter 2021 with plenty of negative headline news on the virus, along with the associated inevitable downgrade or delay to the economic recovery, in our view the technical position remains just as firm as it has been in the last nine months.
Distribution Support for AT1s
Yesterday the ECB released their guidance to banks regarding shareholder distributions. They have reiterated that banks should exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration (bonus payments) and have set limits for dividend payments to equity holders and prudence on any share buy-back schemes.