TwentyFour

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.

Last week, European regulators took another step in their long journey towards a single European banking regime, otherwise known as “banking union”.

Corporate hybrid issuance is on track for a record year in both Europe and the US, driven by expanding supply well beyond the traditional utilities, energy, and telecoms issuers.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Jack Daley reflects on a strong start to 2026 for investment grade credit, before geopolitical escalation in the Middle East drove increased volatility later in the quarter and shaped market conditions.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Felicity Juckes discusses how geopolitics, inflation and shifting risk sentiment shaped fixed income markets in the first quarter of 2026, and why the focus has remained on high‑quality credit.

TwentyFour Asset Management's Aza Teeuwen reflects on a volatile start to 2026, and explains why European ABS continues to provide relative stability over the quarter, particularly in investment grade.

European high yield (HY) credit, which had proved resilient to start 2026 despite growing concerns over AI risks, came under pressure in March as the Iran war disrupted global trade and weighed heavily on risk appetite.

Negative headlines around private credit have intensified this year, driven by the AI-related software sell-off and the news that most players have restricted withdrawals from retail private credit funds.

Markets have entered another week with geopolitical headlines as the major driver of price action, and with uncertainty running high, we think the likelihood of spreads revisiting their tights of this year has reduced.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.