US

Yesterday we blogged on how European HY had always led recoveries in UK equities this century, and that even more so this time around we expect the same to happen.

With markets in turmoil and economies around the world shutting down to slow the spread of COVID-19, many investors have been looking to the US to lead the stimulus effort on both the monetary and fiscal policy front. This week they may have got it.

For participants in financial markets a liquidity squeeze that lasts for a prolonged period is one of the most difficult environments to cope with. Correlations break down, markets trade in a vacuum, small trades lead to disproportionate price moves, relative value goes out of the window, panic sets in, selling is indiscriminate. This is where we have been for the last two weeks. So we thought we would share some of these experiences with you and try to rationalise why it is happening and when it might end.

Monday was one of those days investment professionals will remember all their lives, and compare with similar standout days from the past.

While the European bond market was setting records last week, the US market has also begun 2020 with a flurry of transactions backed up by record inflows.

Fixed income investors are well versed in the risks of ‘fallen angels’, investment grade companies whose bonds tumble in value once they are downgraded to high yield.

"One group of issuers that appears vulnerable to us as we move into a new decade is those facing increased investor scrutiny due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. The case of CoreCivic, a listed REIT in the US, is a good example"

Overnight markets have had significant news to digest, with two of the major geopolitical hurdles that had been worrying investors being removed.

By now investors should be getting used to the ever more frequent hiccups in the trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world.

"In some parts of the global economy, we might be seeing a bottom in terms of low activity levels." TwentyFour's Felipe Villarroel discusses the factors behind these improving trends.

At this late point in the cycle, fixed income investors are on high alert for signs of potential excess in the capital markets, and a proposal for potentially the biggest leveraged buyout (LBO) in history would certainly fall into that category.

The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, combined with financial results from the banks, is probably still the most useful tool we have for gauging the cycle’s life expectancy.