14 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog What’s Really Going On With US Jobs? At 8.1m, the number of job openings as of March 31 was the highest it has been since the data series began some 20 years ago. Read more
11 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog Classic Late-cycle Issuance…in Mid-cycle Markets can often be tricky for investors in May as bond issuers take advantage of a window of opportunity following the Q1 earnings season and ahead of the typical summer lull. This often results in heavy supply in late April and early May, hence the old trader adage of “sell in May and go away”. Read more
5 May 2021 TwentyFour Blog Beware a Second Wave of Treasury Selling Crucially while the Fed may wait to see the evidence, markets won’t, and we therefore expect a ‘second wave’ of Treasury selling to happen well before then. Read more
29 Apr 2021 Market Update Q2 2021 Investor Update In TwentyFour's quarterly update, Mark Holman discussed his outlook for the bellwether US Treasury curve, and explained how he thinks investors can still look to pick up yield while avoiding traditionally more rate-sensitive markets. Watch now
22 Apr 2021 Market Update Where Buffett and Dalio are wrong on bonds Mark Holman explains why the likes of Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio are warning investors away from fixed income, and points out where he thinks they’re wrong. Read more
16 Mar 2021 TwentyFour Blog Are Markets Getting Ahead of the Fed? The bear steepening of the US Treasury curve has undoubtedly been the story of 2021 so far for fixed income investors, many of whom will have felt the adverse impact of the broad rates sell-off on their portfolios. Read more
9 Mar 2021 TwentyFour Blog Why TIPS Aren’t as Generous as They Seem In a developed country such as the US, a scenario of rising inflation expectations is usually accompanied by a bear steepening across maturities of the underlying yield curve. Read more
8 Mar 2021 TwentyFour Blog Fed Not Playing Backstop for Treasury Yields Our year-end forecast of 1.50% for the 10-year is already looking very out of date, and it would be a brave person right now to suggest that 2% won’t be touched any time this year as the recovery gets into full flow with the Fed holding its tongue. Read more
2 Mar 2021 TwentyFour Blog US Yield Curve Set To Continue Underperforming In summary things are going quite well, and in this scenario a rise in government bond yields does not necessarily bring about a tightening of financial conditions. Read more
26 Feb 2021 TwentyFour Blog Comprehending The Treasury Move A couple of weeks ago we wrote about Treasuries breaking new ground and the potential for them to go higher as higher inflation expectations gathered pace. Read more
17 Feb 2021 TwentyFour Blog US Treasuries Hit By Inflation Expectations Our end of year view on the 10 year is 1.50, but we could get there a lot quicker - now is not the time to be brave on Treasuries. Read more
4 Feb 2021 TwentyFour Blog Time to Test The Water in CCCs? We think it is indeed time to begin the search for recovery stories and deleveraging credits in sectors where the execution strategy is likely to succeed. Read more