Geopolitics

Markets have entered another week with geopolitical headlines as the major driver of price action, and with uncertainty running high, we think the likelihood of spreads revisiting their tights of this year has reduced.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Despite the oil price hanging on every word from the White House and volatility in everything from equities to government bonds, we saw a record day for US corporate bond supply on Tuesday led by a blockbuster deal from Amazon.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

The month of January has been a very eventful one for markets, mostly courtesy of geopolitical events, ranging from the capture of Venezuela’s sitting president and arguably culminating in Mark Carney’s speech at Davos.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

The new year has begun with a jolt for market participants after the US carried out a military operation in Caracas over the weekend, capturing Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife.