All insights
Fixed income in strong position with Fed cut a done deal
It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).
Jackson Hole: 25 or 50?
The title of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium – essentially a short holiday camp for the world’s economists and central bankers – is “Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy”, an important question given the remarkable resilience developed market economies have shown to the sharpest interest rate hiking cycle we have seen in four decades.
UK data shows economy catching up with Bank of England
When the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for the first time in four years earlier this month, we thought the move – made on a knife-edge 5-4 vote – had come a little too early.
US inflation makes case for (small) September rate cut
Recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data brought good news for investors and central banks.
Lower rates a bigger risk for bank equities than for bonds
Market attention in the government bond market has rapidly turned from central banks holding rates “higher for longer” to the potential for “lower and sooner".
ABS performance review - fundamental focus
Headlines have painted a nervous picture of the health of consumers across Europe. Simultaneously, rating agencies have upgraded their outlook on the same consumer assets to neutral. The short story is that, although there has been a mild weakening in performance metrics, the consumer has held up well and is ahead of our base case expectations in almost all areas.