Q2 Could Be The Best For Risk in 2018
As we now are well into the Q1 earnings season we have been debating how the current quarter could well be the best for risk in 2018.
Insights Topic
Monetary Policy
It’s Still All About The Fed
A lot has been packed into a short week but, despite all the political posturing and rhetoric surrounding trade tariffs, it is still central bank policy that ultimately drives market sentiment and this week we have seen key inputs from leading players at the most important central bank of all, the US Federal Reserve, that have been somewhat overshadowed by more sensationalist news from the political arena.
Looking at all of the Dot Plots
Last Wednesday the Fed raised interest rates in the US for the sixth time since it began this hiking cycle at the end of 2015.
Which foot will the Italians’ political boot end up on?
Last Friday saw the publication of the last electoral poll before the Italian elections that will be held on the 4th of March.
Rising Rates Creating Mini Taper Tantrum
To understand this breakdown in correlation we need look no further than the source of the risk: the answer, just like in May 2013 when Bernanke gave us his taper tantrum, lies in rising rates.
Be Aware Of Policy Change at the Fed
Our forecasts for longer dated government bonds were for yields to gradually rise during 2018, but not in an uncontrolled manner.
If rates were to rise like 1994, would IG credit produce a positive return?
1994 was my first full year in the markets, and what a baptism of fire it was.
Strong Technicals Dominate First Week's Trading
The magnitude of the strong beginning to the year has probably surprised even those who were forecasting a positive start to 2018.