Macroeconomics

Having initially expected central banks to cut interest rates in 2026, investors now face a hawkish pivot after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates at its June meeting.

UK government bond yields have pushed higher this month as markets have digested a building political crisis, with the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, now set to face a Labour Party leadership contest following dire local election results on May 7.

European bank results for the first quarter of 2026 have revealed a strong start to the year, allaying some of the concern that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East might impact bank fundamentals to some extent.

Credit markets have been remarkably resilient in the face of significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility in recent weeks.

With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increasing over the weekend and markets getting used to oil prices well in excess of $100 per barrel, this seems an opportune moment to zoom out and look at the state of play in fixed income markets, considering the unsettling reality of a longer-than-expected conflict in the Middle East.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

News of governments achieving their budgetary objectives or borrowing less than market forecasts has been a rarity in the last few decades.

As Jerome Powell enters his final months at the helm of the Federal Reserve (Fed), market participants have been busy analysing the past speeches of his nominated replacement, Kevin Warsh, with the aim of forming a view as to how his hand is likely to be played.

For global bond investors, predictable central bank activities are an important component of long-term strategy. But the Trump administration’s unprecedented pressure on the Fed, including a criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell, is driving investor fears about the independence of the world’s most important central bank and the reliability of monetary policy.

It is the nature of financial markets that the trends and risks investors have their eye on at the start of the year are seldom the trends and risks they have their eye on by the end. Below is a selection of charts depicting some key trends we have seen develop in 2025, all of which we believe will have implications for investors heading into 2026.