Europe

Fixed income markets have experienced a reasonable correction over recent weeks and, for higher-yielding indices at least, their first negative period so far this year.

This looks to us like a buy-into-the-dip opportunity, but investors should be wary of taking on too much rate sensitivity as the move in risk-free curves is likely to persist until the rate hike cycle is actually on the way.

In the last month, global government bond curves have had a torrid time, with significant steepening seen across US Treasury, UK Gilt and German Bund yields.

Despite the impressive returns of Euro HY over the last year or so, the backdrop for the asset class continues to suggest there is more upside to come.

Douglas Charleston examines the health of labour markets across key developed economies and why ABS investors shouldn’t fear the gradual removal of COVID related job support schemes

There has been a lot of focus on the performance of the high yield markets since the start of the year, particularly in Q1 when many rates markets were selling off aggressively.

Having been at the heart of the GFC and then contributing to the Eurozone sovereign crisis, we have long argued the European banking sector would have to prove its newfound resilience to investors by successfully navigating a challenging period.

Primary deals launched in the European high yield market over the last two weeks have been diverse, and at times opportunistic.

In summary things are going quite well, and in this scenario a rise in government bond yields does not necessarily bring about a tightening of financial conditions.

Fixed income investors increasingly desire their investments to have a positive societal impact, but in the rush to scrutinise the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) credentials of government and corporate bond issuers, we believe the natural ESG advantages of asset-backed securities (ABS) have so far been overlooked.

Thursday’s ECB meeting left us in little doubt that we should expect some serious action in December, including the possibility of some new, as yet unused measures.

Having fallen behind other markets in the post-COVID rally due to a lack of direct central bank support, we believe European ABS is set to outperform other parts of fixed income in the coming months as supply wanes and investors look to pick up on what we think could be a compelling relative value opportunity.