Multi-Sector Bonds

For high yield issuers 2021 has started in a similar vein to 2020, with the technical backdrop providing an attractive environment for capital raising.

At the moment CLO spreads are tightening, as they are right across credit. However, we haven’t had any CLO primary deals come to market so far in 2021, so we are operating in a bit of an informational vacuum, at which point these cross-asset class comparisons can be useful.

As we have said many times over the past few months, this cycle is likely to be remembered (among other reasons) as being exceptional for its unprecedented momentum.

In his latest video, George Curtis discusses our views on high yield defaults over the last few months and what he thinks we can expect in 2021

We have now retraced some 90% of the March widening in European high yield (on a spread basis and relative to the January tights), a recovery trend we expect to continue as economies open up and demand bounces back. 

To mark the fifth anniversary of his firm’s Strategic Income global bond strategy, TwentyFour Asset Management chief executive, Mark Holman, looks at how the COVID-19 crisis has transformed the bond markets in 2020, and where he believes investors should be looking for value heading into 2021.

Unlike the past six months, where nearly all new deals performed well in the secondary market, from here on in that is far from guaranteed. Expect winners and losers.

George Curtis discusses Q3 performance for credit markets and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

Overall, in our view there may be some temporary volatility ahead which investors can try to sidestep or even take advantage of, but it’s probably not worth trying to be too cute as our medium term outlook is still constructive.

Yesterday we showed that for European investors, what we speculated on back in March has come true; that the bond market did recover its losses far more quickly than equities, as shown below.

A trend of negative ratings migration has historically been a consistent precursor for a pick up in the default rate of publicly rated debt.

With BP slashing its dividend this week, we have now seen 52 of the FTSE 100 companies suspend or cut their dividends this year.