The TwentyFour Blog

As we start the new year and approach the 5th anniversary since the issue of the first European Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond (BBVA 9% Perp-18), it is a good time to re-assess the sector in the current market.

As most of our readers know, ABS is an asset class that lends itself well to detailed underwriting, from onsite due diligence through to cashflow and risk modelling.

The magnitude of the strong beginning to the year has probably surprised even those who were forecasting a positive start to 2018.

The BTL sector has taken a bit of a pounding over the last couple of years, as authorities introduced a number of harsh measures to counter fears of “financial stability risks” posed by growth in lending, with concerns that future financial tightening could lead to a surge in landlords looking to exit the market should they become stressed, and subsequently cause a house price crash.  The measures included:

Way back in the summer of 2012 we wrote in our blog Picking up the PieCeS about a newly launched industry initiative to develop a set of best practice criteria for European ABS, awarding those deals that met the conditions with a label of qualification.

After what has been a terrific year for risk in 2017, making our predictions for the upcoming year is all the more challenging. The risks we won’t be taking seem to be much easier to list than those that we will, so we’ll start with those. But before we embark on 2018, we should review our predictions for 2017.

Just two months ago, in Gilts Go Gangbusters, we argued that having long-dated conventional Gilts with cash prices of over 200 was unsustainable in the long term.

We are not in the habit of writing when a lot of our readers are on holiday, however we know many of you still follow events closely even while off, and we felt this event was particularly newsworthy.