The TwentyFour Blog

Are central banks now at a point where they are done with hiking cycles and are we seeing a positive outcome for fixed income?

The European ABS market is making a strong comeback post-summer, witnessing two of the busiest weeks in over a decade, driven by robust demand.

Eoin Walsh shares his thoughts following last night's statement from the Federal Reserve, concluding that for now while treasury yields aren’t helping, credit looks attractive based on the rosy economic forecasts.

Felipe Villarroel argues that it will not be long before we see yields in fixed income assets at levels markedly above spot inflation which could translate in investors racing to lock in those yields.

The labour market has been one of the major headaches the Bank of England has had to deal with in their battle against inflation. Yesterday the ONS released their monthly labour market update and although some of those headaches’ causes are not abating, there are others that are actually showing signs of progress.

Dillon Lancaster comments on the divergence in views from ECB members, and whether the end of the week will see a 'skip' or 'hawkish pause'. He believes either outcome is not likely to have a huge effect on the market.

Pierre Beniguel gives his thoughts on some of the deals that have caught his eye from the reopening of the primary market after a quiet summer.

Pauline Quirin asks the question "How are UK mortgages weathering the storm?", exploring pre and post Global Financial Crisis mortgages and how the surge in rates has impacted the performance of UK RMBS.

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at what progress, if any, has been made in the labour market and how this resonates with the Fed's projection of labour markets easing while not experiencing a major disruption.

Felipe Villarroel shares his thoughts on the recently released preliminary PMI data, which he concludes is a reminder that the hiking cycle only started 18 months ago and there are lags that are yet to be felt in the real economy, reiterating some of his previous views.

An interesting debate, and topic that is attracting plenty of headlines given the recent volatility is where Treasury yields will ultimately settle, with a renewed focus on the neutral rate. Eoin Walsh explores the previous movements of Treasury yields and what Powell is likely to say at Jasckon Hole.

Europe recently saw the re-emergence of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (#CMBS) issuance, with Blackstone sponsored Last Mile Logistics 2023-1 deal, marking the first return since March 2022 from sponsor Blackstone and the first European CMBS issuance of any kind since last April.