16 Apr 2024 TwentyFour Blog Health of US small business: an indicator for the US economy The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey can most certainly be considered an important report that monitors the pulse of the US economy. Read more
25 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog AT1s caught in the crossfire but junior bank debt is here to stay Over the course of last week, we saw several headlines around Additional Tier 1s (AT1s). First, the Dutch Finance Ministry indicated it is exploring the possibility of modifying or abolishing the asset class. Read more
19 Mar 2024 Market Update Why now for ABS: healthy consumers and attractive income Despite the cost-of-living crisis and inflation crunch on consumers, they have proven exceptionally hardy, with their financial health remaining remarkably strong during a very difficult period. Read more
19 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Maturity wall: what maturity wall? We saw a great disparity among strategists in terms of default-rate projections for this year. With the cost for corporates to refinance their debt considerably higher than we saw in 2020 and 2021, and an elevated volume of upcoming maturities, many market participants predicted a default rate markedly higher than what we have seen so far. Read more
13 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Mixed news from the CPI release - but what does it mean for rate cuts? Yesterday’s US CPI report delivered a few interesting numbers but is still consistent with the Fed’s goals and timelines, which should allow it to cut rates in the context of some sort of a soft landing. Read more
12 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Unemployment in the US: a tale of two surveys The latest US non-farm payroll numbers increased by 275,000 for February (payroll survey) incorporating a two-month payroll revision of -167,000, most likely due to seasonal factors, leaving a net revision of just 108,000 jobs added. Read more
8 Mar 2024 TwentyFour Blog Powell and Lagarde share notes on possible rate cuts We have had a busy week on the central bank front with the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to congress on Wednesday before Christine Lagarde took centre stage at the European Central Bank press conference yesterday. Read more
20 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog The UK’s data rollercoaster: recession confirmed, inflation eases, and consumers rebound Last week's data deluge from the UK painted a mixed picture for the economy, offering insights into inflation, growth, and the possible path for interest rates. Read more
16 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Shelter component exposes the Fed's ‘last mile’ battle with inflation The January US consumer price index (CPI) data came in stronger than expected with core month-on-month figures coming in at 0.4 % (0.3% expected) and year-on-year figures at 3.9% (3.7% expected) but unchanged from December’s 3.9% print. Read more
15 Feb 2024 Market Update Income is back: five reasons to invest in bonds in 2024 Income has returned. After a couple of barren years, yields in high-quality bonds that were not too long ago returning just 2% or 3% are now set to bring in 7% to 8%. And this jump in yields looks to be a game changer for investors. Read more
9 Feb 2024 TwentyFour Blog Next week’s CPI numbers will provide more clues on rate cuts Next week markets will receive January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints from the US and the UK, which will no doubt be widely followed. In the US, the Bloomberg consensus is for a significant drop in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9%, while core is expected to decline by a less spectacular 20 bps from 3.9% to 3.7%. For the UK, consensus is for a small increase in CPI inflation from 4.0% to 4.1%. Read more
29 Jan 2024 TwentyFour Blog PCE data brought something for everyone The long-awaited Personal Income and Outlays report for December was released last Friday. This piece produced by the U.S.’ Bureau of Economic Analysis contains information about personal income, savings rates and very importantly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of the economy. Read more